AwayCommanders
Home49ers
Monday · Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers 16–33
- Win pick
- 49ers 90%
- ATS lean
- SF -7.5
- Total lean
- Under 50.5
Market: WAS +330 · SF -425 · total 50.5
Full game file →2026 NFL · market snapshot Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT
NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread.
San Francisco 49ers has the largest current model-to-spread difference. Every number below is tied to the displayed market snapshot and a pregame model run.
- Games on the slate
- 14
- 2025 straight up
- 60.1%
- 2025 ATS
- 81–82
- 2025 totals
- 81–80
AwayTexans
HomeJaguars
Sunday · Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars 16–28
- Win pick
- Jaguars 81%
- ATS lean
- JAX -3
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: HOU +145 · JAX -175 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayJets
HomePatriots
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots 14–29
- Win pick
- Patriots 88%
- ATS lean
- NE -7
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: NYJ +260 · NE -325 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayTitans
HomeColts
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts 16–29
- Win pick
- Colts 84%
- ATS lean
- IND -6.5
- Total lean
- Over 44.5
Market: TEN +235 · IND -290 · total 44.5
Full game file →
AwayCowboys
HomePackers
Sunday · Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
Green Bay Packers 23–27
- Win pick
- Packers 62%
- ATS lean
- GB +1.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: DAL -126 · GB +108 · total 50.5
Full game file →
AwayCardinals
HomeRams
Sunday · Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams 16–32
- Win pick
- Rams 88%
- ATS lean
- LAR -10.5
- Total lean
- Under 51.5
Market: ARI +470 · LAR -650 · total 51.5
Full game file →
AwaySaints
HomeGiants
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
New York Giants 22–25
- Win pick
- Giants 58%
- ATS lean
- NYG +1.5
- Total lean
- Over 45.5
Market: NO -118 · NYG -102 · total 45.5
Full game file →
AwayChargers
HomeChiefs
Sunday · Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs 16–27
- Win pick
- Chiefs 80%
- ATS lean
- KC -7.5
- Total lean
- Under 45.5
Market: LAC +310 · KC -395 · total 45.5
Full game file →
AwayPanthers
HomeEagles
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Carolina Panthers 23–22
- Win pick
- Panthers 51%
- ATS lean
- CAR +2.5
- Total lean
- Over 43.5
Market: CAR +110 · PHI -130 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayRavens
HomeBrowns
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens 24–23
- Win pick
- Ravens 51%
- ATS lean
- CLE +3
- Total lean
- Over 41.5
Market: BAL -166 · CLE +140 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwaySeahawks
HomeBroncos
Thursday · Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos 21–22
- Win pick
- Broncos 53%
- ATS lean
- DEN +1.5
- Total lean
- Over 42.5
Market: SEA -122 · DEN +102 · total 42.5
Full game file →
AwayBears
HomeFalcons
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears 25–21
- Win pick
- Bears 61%
- ATS lean
- CHI -1.5
- Total lean
- Under 47.5
Market: CHI -122 · ATL +102 · total 47.5
Full game file →
AwaySteelers
HomeBuccaneers
Sunday · Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–22
- Win pick
- Steelers 51%
- ATS lean
- TB +2.5
- Total lean
- Over 39.5
Market: PIT -134 · TB +114 · total 39.5
Full game file →
AwayBills
HomeRaiders
Sunday · Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo Bills 27–22
- Win pick
- Bills 66%
- ATS lean
- BUF -4.5
- Total lean
- Under 51.5
Market: BUF -230 · LV +190 · total 51.5
Full game file →Read the number
A model difference, not a promise.
FTT blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent scoring, prior-season strength, site and rest. The market line is a separate input used only to calculate the displayed difference.
The same rules went 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals across 208 games in the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward. The ATS and totals records were effectively coin flips; the displayed differences are research signals, not a proven wagering edge.
See the complete methodology →What are the best NFL Week 6 picks against the spread?
The page ranks the current model differences and shows the evidence for every game. A larger difference is a stronger model signal, not a guaranteed result.
Where do the odds and lines come from?
FTT reads the nflverse schedule release, stores the market snapshot time, and freezes each pregame record at kickoff. It does not scrape or name an individual sportsbook.
How does the FTT NFL model work?
The model blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent points scored and allowed, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market lines are shown for comparison, not used to create the team rating.
Do the picks update after kickoff?
No. Pregame projections and the attached line snapshot freeze at kickoff. Final scores then grade the archived call without rewriting it.