Away
14New York Jets
- Record
- 1-3
- FTT rating
- -7.9
- Listed QB
- Smith
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Jets vs. Patriots prediction.
New England Patriots is the FTT straight-up pick at 88% model probability. The projected score is NYJ 14, NE 29.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
29New England Patriots
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +6.3
- Listed QB
- Maye
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NE 73% market | NE 88% model | New England Patriots -325 | 14.5 points |
| Spread | NE -7 | NE -15.7 | New England Patriots -7 | 8.7 points |
| Total | O/U 43.5 | 42.8 | Pass | 0.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
New York Jets entered Week 6 at 1-3 with a -2.0 point differential per game. New England Patriots entered at 2-2 and -3.0 per game.
New England Patriots receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Jets vs. Patriots?
The FTT model picks New England Patriots. Its projected score is NYJ 14, NE 29.
What is the Jets vs. Patriots spread pick?
The model leans New England Patriots -7, with a 8.7-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Jets vs. Patriots over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 43.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.