Win probabilities
Opponent-adjusted team ratings become a projected margin and game-level win probability. The 2025 walk-forward went 125–83 straight up.
NFL model room · updated Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT
NFL picks and predictions.
Every game gets a score prediction, win probability, spread comparison and total comparison. Every pregame call freezes at kickoff so the record cannot move after the result.
Week 5
The full slate, one model.
TB at DAL
Buccaneers at Cowboys
Final result and closing market context.
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PHI at JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Projected PHI 15, JAX 28. JAX -7.5 ATS. Over 41.5.
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CHI at GB
Chicago Bears to win
Projected CHI 26, GB 20. CHI -1.5 ATS.
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CIN at MIA
Cincinnati Bengals to win
Projected CIN 24, MIA 22. MIA +7 ATS. Over 43.5.
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CLE at NYJ
Cleveland Browns to win
Projected CLE 23, NYJ 19. CLE +2.5 ATS. Over 39.5.
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HOU at TEN
Houston Texans to win
Projected HOU 26, TEN 16. HOU -7 ATS. Over 37.5.
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IND at PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Projected IND 23, PIT 24. IND +3 ATS. Over 43.5.
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LV at NE
New England Patriots to win
Projected LV 16, NE 27. NE -3.5 ATS. Under 45.5.
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MIN at NO
Minnesota Vikings to win
Projected MIN 25, NO 18. MIN -2.5 ATS. Over 41.5.
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NYG at WAS
New York Giants to win
Projected NYG 25, WAS 22. NYG +3.5 ATS. Over 41.5.
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DEN at LAC
Denver Broncos to win
Projected DEN 25, LAC 18. DEN -3.5 ATS.
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DET at ARI
Detroit Lions to win
Projected DET 31, ARI 23. DET -5.5 ATS.
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SF at SEA
Seattle Seahawks to win
Projected SF 23, SEA 24. SF +3 ATS.
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BAL at ATL
Atlanta Falcons to win
Projected BAL 24, ATL 25. BAL +3 ATS. Over 43.5.
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BUF at LAR
Los Angeles Rams to win
Projected BUF 23, LAR 28. LAR -3.5 ATS. Under 54.5.
Open prediction →Model versus line
The FTT margin is compared with the timestamped nflverse market spread. The 2025 walk-forward went 81–82; that is not evidence of a betting edge.
Scoring versus total
Recent and prior scoring profiles create the projected total. The 2025 walk-forward went 81–80; use the output as transparent analysis.
Use the weekly model
Four boards for four decisions.
Straight up
Rank every winner
All picks ordered by model win probability.
Open board →Exact scoresProject every final
Expected score, margin and total for the full slate.
Open board →SurvivorFind the safest path
Favorites ranked for one-and-done pool decisions.
Open board →ConfidenceAssign the points
A ready-to-use descending confidence order.
Open board →Look aheadPreview Week 6 →
Week 6 is already live.
Early projections refresh as Week 5 results arrive.
Betting tools and history
Go beyond this week.
Interactive
NFL score predictor
Choose any published matchup and see the projected final.
Open board →All 32 teamsNFL ATS records
Compare current, last-10 and prior-season spread results.
Open board →Five free toolsBetting calculators
Parlays, payouts, no-vig prices, hedges and Kelly sizing.
Open board →Working with one price? Open the standalone American odds calculator.