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Methodology // 2026.08.3

The calculator shows its work.

No generated explanation and no mystery multiplier. These are the exact deterministic rules behind every current result.

01 // Base values

One shared market scale.

Every player and rookie pick enters the calculator on Tradyr’s 0–1000 composite market scale. The selected format—dynasty or redraft, 1QB or Superflex, and TE premium—determines which market set is loaded.

The raw total is the simple sum of every asset on a side. It is shown for reference, but it is not the default verdict when roster cost is enabled.

RAW SIDE VALUE = Σ ASSET MARKET SCORE
02 // League scoring

Change value, not just points.

The published market is the anchor. Full PPR with four points per passing touchdown is the neutral baseline. Selecting six-point passing touchdowns, half PPR, or standard scoring re-prices players by how their fantasy production changes relative to a replacement-level player at the same position. Picks remain unchanged.

PPR means points per reception. The three supported reception settings are:

Standard0 points per reception
Half PPR0.5 points per reception
Full PPR1 point per reception

Player scoring profiles use per-game NFL totals from up to three recent seasons. The newest season receives weight 1.00, then 0.55 and 0.30. Short samples receive less weight, and the final market adjustment is reduced when fewer than 17 weighted games are available.

FANTASY POINTS = PASS YDS × 0.04 + PASS TD × (4 OR 6) − INT × 2
+ RUSH YDS × 0.10 + RUSH TD × 6
+ RECEPTIONS × (0, 0.5, OR 1) + REC YDS × 0.10 + REC TD × 6
− FUMBLES LOST × 2 + TWO-POINT CONVERSIONS × 2

The neutral roster baseline is one or two quarterbacks, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX per team. Your dedicated starter counts establish the first replacement rank. FLEX demand is then assigned to the highest-valued eligible RBs, WRs, and TEs left beyond those dedicated starters. Each replacement baseline is the median of up to five modeled players nearest the resulting positional rank.

ΔVORP = (SELECTED PLAYER PPG − SELECTED REPLACEMENT PPG)
− (BASELINE PLAYER PPG − BASELINE REPLACEMENT PPG)

VALUE SHIFT = ΔVORP ÷ POSITION SPREAD × FORMAT CAP × SAMPLE CONFIDENCE

Changing a FLEX or dedicated starter slot does not alter anyone's raw fantasy points. It changes positional demand and the replacement line. The position spread is the 75th percentile of positive starter value over the neutral replacement baseline, with a two-point floor. To keep market evidence dominant, shifts are capped at ±12% in dynasty and ±20% in redraft. Players without a usable profile keep their original market value.

Explore the scoring impact lab →
03 // Roster cost

A dollar beats loose change.

Assets are sorted from highest to lowest value. The best asset keeps 100% of its score. Additional pieces receive the weights below. Turn roster cost off to use a pure additive total.

PieceWeightReason
Best asset100%Sets the package anchor
2nd90%Small roster cost
3rd84%Replacement friction
4th79%Bench / cut pressure
5th75%Deep-package discount
6th+72% → 68%Diminishing practical utility
04 // Verdict bands

A range, not fake precision.

0–4%

Fair trade

4–10%

Leans one side

10–18%

Clear edge

18%+

Strong edge

05 // Matchup temperature

The calendar, with a visible baseline.

Team pages grade each scheduled game from 0 to 100. The largest input is the opponent's prior-season NFL scoring-defense rank: No. 1 allowed the fewest points and creates the cold end of the scale; No. 32 allowed the most and creates the hot end.

SCORE = 50 + (DEFENSE RANK − 16.5) × 2.35
+ SITE (HOME +4 · AWAY −2 · NEUTRAL 0)
+ REST DIFFERENCE (CAPPED AT ±4 DAYS) × 1.25
FINAL SCORE = CLAMPED TO 0–100
Cold
0–31
Cool
32–43
Balanced
44–56
Warm
57–67
Hot
68–100

The score describes an overall scoring environment. It does not include positional fantasy points allowed, current injuries, depth-chart changes, weather, or player usage, so it is never presented as a start/sit projection.

Known limits

What the model does not pretend to know.

Scoring adjustments are a historical scoring fit, not a projection of future games. This release models four- versus six-point passing touchdowns; standard, half, or full PPR; league size; one-QB versus Superflex demand; dedicated RB/WR/TE starters; and zero to three RB/WR/TE FLEX spots. It does not yet model yardage bonuses, first downs, custom turnover rules, TE-premium scoring beyond the selected source market, position-restricted FLEX variants, bench depth, standings, player exposure, injury tolerance, or another manager’s incentives. The result remains a transparent market baseline, with league-aware Sleeper analysis labeled separately when it arrives.