Away
23Pittsburgh Steelers
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +0.7
- Listed QB
- Rodgers
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Pittsburgh Steelers is the FTT straight-up pick at 51% model probability. The projected score is PIT 23, TB 22.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
22Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record
- 1-4
- FTT rating
- -1.7
- Listed QB
- Daniels
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | TB 45% market | TB 49% model | Pittsburgh Steelers -134 | 3.7 points |
| Spread | TB +2.5 | TB +0.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 | 2.0 points |
| Total | O/U 39.5 | 43.9 | Over 39.5 | 4.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Pittsburgh Steelers entered Week 6 at 2-2 with a -2.5 point differential per game. Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered at 1-4 and -2.4 per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Steelers vs. Buccaneers?
The FTT model picks Pittsburgh Steelers. Its projected score is PIT 23, TB 22.
What is the Steelers vs. Buccaneers spread pick?
The model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5, with a 2.0-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Steelers vs. Buccaneers over/under pick?
The model leans over 39.5, with a 4.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.