Away
27Buffalo Bills
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- +3.5
- Listed QB
- Allen
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Bills vs. Raiders prediction.
Buffalo Bills is the FTT straight-up pick at 66% model probability. The projected score is BUF 27, LV 22.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
22Las Vegas Raiders
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- -3.7
- Listed QB
- Cousins
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | LV 33% market | LV 34% model | Buffalo Bills -230 | 0.7 points |
| Spread | LV +4.5 | LV +5.6 | Buffalo Bills -4.5 | 1.1 points |
| Total | O/U 51.5 | 49.2 | Under 51.5 | 2.3 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Buffalo Bills entered Week 6 at 3-1 with a +5.0 point differential per game. Las Vegas Raiders entered at 3-1 and +7.8 per game.
Las Vegas Raiders receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bills vs. Raiders?
The FTT model picks Buffalo Bills. Its projected score is BUF 27, LV 22.
What is the Bills vs. Raiders spread pick?
The model leans Buffalo Bills -4.5, with a 1.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bills vs. Raiders over/under pick?
The model leans under 51.5, with a 2.3-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.