Away
23Dallas Cowboys
- Record
- 2-3
- FTT rating
- -4.3
- Listed QB
- Prescott
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
Cowboys vs. Packers prediction.
Green Bay Packers is the FTT straight-up pick at 62% model probability. The projected score is DAL 23, GB 27.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
27Green Bay Packers
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- -1.2
- Listed QB
- Love
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | GB 46% market | GB 62% model | Green Bay Packers +108 | 16.0 points |
| Spread | GB +1.5 | GB -4.2 | Green Bay Packers +1.5 | 5.7 points |
| Total | O/U 50.5 | 50.2 | Pass | 0.3 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Dallas Cowboys entered Week 6 at 2-3 with a +0.4 point differential per game. Green Bay Packers entered at 2-2 and -8.0 per game.
Green Bay Packers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Cowboys vs. Packers?
The FTT model picks Green Bay Packers. Its projected score is DAL 23, GB 27.
What is the Cowboys vs. Packers spread pick?
The model leans Green Bay Packers +1.5, with a 5.7-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Cowboys vs. Packers over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 50.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.