Away
16Houston Texans
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- +0.0
- Listed QB
- Stroud
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
Texans vs. Jaguars prediction.
Jacksonville Jaguars is the FTT straight-up pick at 81% model probability. The projected score is HOU 16, JAX 28.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
28Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- +11.7
- Listed QB
- Lawrence
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | JAX 61% market | JAX 81% model | Jacksonville Jaguars -175 | 19.8 points |
| Spread | JAX -3 | JAX -11.7 | Jacksonville Jaguars -3 | 8.7 points |
| Total | O/U 43.5 | 44.1 | Pass | 0.6 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Houston Texans entered Week 6 at 0-4 with a -6.3 point differential per game. Jacksonville Jaguars entered at 3-1 and +12.8 per game.
The game is at a neutral site. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Texans vs. Jaguars?
The FTT model picks Jacksonville Jaguars. Its projected score is HOU 16, JAX 28.
What is the Texans vs. Jaguars spread pick?
The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars -3, with a 8.7-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Texans vs. Jaguars over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 43.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.