Away
25Chicago Bears
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- +5.7
- Listed QB
- Bagent
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
Bears vs. Falcons prediction.
Chicago Bears is the FTT straight-up pick at 61% model probability. The projected score is CHI 25, ATL 21.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
21Atlanta Falcons
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +0.4
- Listed QB
- Jr.
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | ATL 47% market | ATL 39% model | Chicago Bears -122 | 8.4 points |
| Spread | ATL +1.5 | ATL +3.8 | Chicago Bears -1.5 | 2.3 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 46.5 | Under 47.5 | 1.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Chicago Bears entered Week 6 at 3-1 with a +11.8 point differential per game. Atlanta Falcons entered at 2-2 and +1.0 per game.
Atlanta Falcons receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bears vs. Falcons?
The FTT model picks Chicago Bears. Its projected score is CHI 25, ATL 21.
What is the Bears vs. Falcons spread pick?
The model leans Chicago Bears -1.5, with a 2.3-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bears vs. Falcons over/under pick?
The model leans under 47.5, with a 1.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.