Away
16Los Angeles Chargers
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- -3.3
- Listed QB
- Herbert
NFL Week 6 · Sunday, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs is the FTT straight-up pick at 80% model probability. The projected score is LAC 16, KC 27.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
27Kansas City Chiefs
- Record
- 4-0
- FTT rating
- +6.0
- Listed QB
- Mahomes
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | KC 77% market | KC 80% model | Kansas City Chiefs -395 | 3.6 points |
| Spread | KC -7.5 | KC -11.4 | Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 | 3.9 points |
| Total | O/U 45.5 | 43.5 | Under 45.5 | 2.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Los Angeles Chargers entered Week 6 at 0-4 with a -9.8 point differential per game. Kansas City Chiefs entered at 4-0 and +10.3 per game.
Kansas City Chiefs receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Chargers vs. Chiefs?
The FTT model picks Kansas City Chiefs. Its projected score is LAC 16, KC 27.
What is the Chargers vs. Chiefs spread pick?
The model leans Kansas City Chiefs -7.5, with a 3.9-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Chargers vs. Chiefs over/under pick?
The model leans under 45.5, with a 2.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.