What are the NFL Week 11 straight-up picks?
FTT ranks the complete weekly slate from a pregame team-strength model and links every answer to its matchup evidence.
2026 NFL · Week 11 · Win probabilities
NFL Week 11 Straight-Up Picks.
Buffalo Bills is the strongest straight-up pick at 89%, followed by the rest of the slate in probability order.
Updated Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Projections refresh before kickoff, then the archived call stays fixed.
| Rank | Pick | Opponent | FTT win chance | Market | Projected score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buffalo Bills | vs. Dolphins | 89% | -1650 | MIA 16, BUF 32 | Game file → |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | vs. Raiders | 85% | -455 | LV 17, DEN 30 | Game file → |
| 3 |  Chicago Bears | vs. Saints | 83% | -470 | NO 17, CHI 30 | Game file → |
| 4 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs. Giants | 82% | -265 | JAX 29, NYG 16 | Game file → |
| 5 |  Kansas City Chiefs | vs. Cardinals | 80% | -950 | ARI 17, KC 28 | Game file → |
| 6 |  Houston Texans | vs. Colts | 78% | -455 | IND 19, HOU 29 | Game file → |
| 7 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Eagles | 76% | -198 | PIT 26, PHI 16 | Game file → |
| 8 |  Dallas Cowboys | vs. Titans | 74% | -410 | TEN 20, DAL 29 | Game file → |
| 9 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs. Commanders | 71% | -205 | CIN 28, WAS 21 | Game file → |
| 10 |  Carolina Panthers | vs. Ravens | 62% | -125 | BAL 22, CAR 26 | Game file → |
| 11 |  San Francisco 49ers | vs. Vikings | 62% | -205 | MIN 19, SF 23 | Game file → |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Chargers | vs. Jets | 57% | -125 | NYJ 21, LAC 23 | Game file → |
| 13 |  Detroit Lions | vs. Buccaneers | 51% | -180 | TB 24, DET 25 | Game file → |
How to use it
Rank the slate by win probability.
The table orders every pick by the model's estimated chance to win, independent of the point spread. Moneylines are displayed as market context.
Use the probability gap to separate clear favorites from toss-ups. A 52% pick and a 51% pick should not be treated as meaningfully different.
The model uses only information available before the target week: opponent-adjusted team strength, scoring form, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market odds are shown for context and do not create the team rating.
Read the methodology →When do these NFL picks update?
The board refreshes with the scheduled data release before kickoff. Each game prediction freezes when that game starts.
Does the model use the betting line to make its pick?
No. Team strength, scoring, site and rest create the prediction. The timestamped market line is shown separately for comparison.
Are these guaranteed picks?
No. Probabilities and score projections describe uncertainty; they do not guarantee an outcome or profit.