Away
17Arizona Cardinals
- Record
- 3-6
- FTT rating
- -6.9
- Listed QB
- Minshew
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Cardinals vs. Chiefs prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs is the FTT straight-up pick at 80% model probability. The projected score is ARI 17, KC 28.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
28Kansas City Chiefs
- Record
- 6-2
- FTT rating
- +2.9
- Listed QB
- Mahomes
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | KC 87% market | KC 80% model | Kansas City Chiefs -950 | 6.9 points |
| Spread | KC -14 | KC -11.2 | Arizona Cardinals +14 | 2.8 points |
| Total | O/U 42.5 | 45.5 | Over 42.5 | 3.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Arizona Cardinals entered Week 11 at 3-6 with a -8.6 point differential per game. Kansas City Chiefs entered at 6-2 and +7.4 per game.
Kansas City Chiefs receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Cardinals vs. Chiefs?
The FTT model picks Kansas City Chiefs. Its projected score is ARI 17, KC 28.
What is the Cardinals vs. Chiefs spread pick?
The model leans Arizona Cardinals +14, with a 2.8-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Cardinals vs. Chiefs over/under pick?
The model leans over 42.5, with a 3.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.