Away
21New York Jets
- Record
- 2-7
- FTT rating
- -9.1
- Listed QB
- Smith
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 4:05 PM ET
Jets vs. Chargers prediction.
Los Angeles Chargers is the FTT straight-up pick at 57% model probability. The projected score is NYJ 21, LAC 23.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
23Los Angeles Chargers
- Record
- 0-8
- FTT rating
- -8.2
- Listed QB
- Herbert
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | LAC 53% market | LAC 57% model | Los Angeles Chargers -125 | 3.3 points |
| Spread | LAC -1.5 | LAC -2.2 | Pass | 0.7 points |
| Total | O/U 42.5 | 43.9 | Over 42.5 | 1.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
New York Jets entered Week 11 at 2-7 with a -4.6 point differential per game. Los Angeles Chargers entered at 0-8 and -12.3 per game.
Los Angeles Chargers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Jets vs. Chargers?
The FTT model picks Los Angeles Chargers. Its projected score is NYJ 21, LAC 23.
What is the Jets vs. Chargers spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -1.5.
What is the Jets vs. Chargers over/under pick?
The model leans over 42.5, with a 1.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.