Away
29Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record
- 6-2
- FTT rating
- +11.3
- Listed QB
- Lawrence
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Jaguars vs. Giants prediction.
Jacksonville Jaguars is the FTT straight-up pick at 82% model probability. The projected score is JAX 29, NYG 16.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
16New York Giants
- Record
- 5-3-1
- FTT rating
- -2.9
- Listed QB
- McCarthy
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NYG 30% market | NYG 18% model | Jacksonville Jaguars -265 | 12.3 points |
| Spread | NYG +6 | NYG +12.2 | Jacksonville Jaguars -6 | 6.2 points |
| Total | O/U 44.5 | 45.1 | Pass | 0.6 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Jacksonville Jaguars entered Week 11 at 6-2 with a +13.5 point differential per game. New York Giants entered at 5-3-1 and +0.8 per game.
New York Giants receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Jaguars vs. Giants?
The FTT model picks Jacksonville Jaguars. Its projected score is JAX 29, NYG 16.
What is the Jaguars vs. Giants spread pick?
The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars -6, with a 6.2-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Jaguars vs. Giants over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 44.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.