Away
16Miami Dolphins
- Record
- 1-7
- FTT rating
- -5.7
- Listed QB
- Willis
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
Buffalo Bills is the FTT straight-up pick at 89% model probability. The projected score is MIA 16, BUF 32.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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32Buffalo Bills
- Record
- 7-1
- FTT rating
- +9.1
- Listed QB
- Allen
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | BUF 91% market | BUF 89% model | Buffalo Bills -1650 | 2.1 points |
| Spread | BUF -16.5 | BUF -16.3 | Pass | 0.2 points |
| Total | O/U 46.5 | 47.9 | Over 46.5 | 1.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Miami Dolphins entered Week 11 at 1-7 with a -9.3 point differential per game. Buffalo Bills entered at 7-1 and +8.6 per game.
Buffalo Bills receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Dolphins vs. Bills?
The FTT model picks Buffalo Bills. Its projected score is MIA 16, BUF 32.
What is the Dolphins vs. Bills spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +16.5.
What is the Dolphins vs. Bills over/under pick?
The model leans over 46.5, with a 1.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.