Away
19Indianapolis Colts
- Record
- 2-7
- FTT rating
- -4.0
- Listed QB
- Jones
NFL Week 11 · Thursday, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET
Colts vs. Texans prediction.
Houston Texans is the FTT straight-up pick at 78% model probability. The projected score is IND 19, HOU 29.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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29Houston Texans
- Record
- 3-5
- FTT rating
- +4.7
- Listed QB
- Stroud
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | HOU 79% market | HOU 78% model | Houston Texans -455 | 0.9 points |
| Spread | HOU -10 | HOU -10.3 | Pass | 0.3 points |
| Total | O/U 44.5 | 48.4 | Over 44.5 | 3.9 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Indianapolis Colts entered Week 11 at 2-7 with a -7.2 point differential per game. Houston Texans entered at 3-5 and +2.1 per game.
Houston Texans receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Colts vs. Texans?
The FTT model picks Houston Texans. Its projected score is IND 19, HOU 29.
What is the Colts vs. Texans spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -10.
What is the Colts vs. Texans over/under pick?
The model leans over 44.5, with a 3.9-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.