Away
17New Orleans Saints
- Record
- 3-5
- FTT rating
- -4.8
- Listed QB
- Shough
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Saints vs. Bears prediction.
Chicago Bears is the FTT straight-up pick at 83% model probability. The projected score is NO 17, CHI 30.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
30Chicago Bears
- Record
- 7-2
- FTT rating
- +5.9
- Listed QB
- Williams
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | CHI 79% market | CHI 83% model | Chicago Bears -470 | 3.9 points |
| Spread | CHI -9.5 | CHI -12.9 | Chicago Bears -9.5 | 3.4 points |
| Total | O/U 48.5 | 47.8 | Pass | 0.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
New Orleans Saints entered Week 11 at 3-5 with a -3.9 point differential per game. Chicago Bears entered at 7-2 and +6.3 per game.
Chicago Bears receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Saints vs. Bears?
The FTT model picks Chicago Bears. Its projected score is NO 17, CHI 30.
What is the Saints vs. Bears spread pick?
The model leans Chicago Bears -9.5, with a 3.4-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Saints vs. Bears over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 48.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.