Away
24Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record
- 3-6
- FTT rating
- +5.1
- Listed QB
- Mayfield
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET
Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction.
Detroit Lions is the FTT straight-up pick at 51% model probability. The projected score is TB 24, DET 25.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
25Detroit Lions
- Record
- 6-2
- FTT rating
- +4.7
- Listed QB
- Goff
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | DET 62% market | DET 51% model | Detroit Lions -180 | 10.4 points |
| Spread | DET -3.5 | DET -0.4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | 3.1 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 47.6 | Pass | 0.1 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered Week 11 at 3-6 with a +2.7 point differential per game. Detroit Lions entered at 6-2 and +4.1 per game.
Detroit Lions receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Buccaneers vs. Lions?
The FTT model picks Detroit Lions. Its projected score is TB 24, DET 25.
What is the Buccaneers vs. Lions spread pick?
The model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, with a 3.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Buccaneers vs. Lions over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 47.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.