Away
17Las Vegas Raiders
- Record
- 4-5
- FTT rating
- -7.6
- Listed QB
- Mendoza
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 4:25 PM ET
Raiders vs. Broncos prediction.
Denver Broncos is the FTT straight-up pick at 85% model probability. The projected score is LV 17, DEN 30.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
30Denver Broncos
- Record
- 7-2
- FTT rating
- +4.1
- Listed QB
- Nix
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | DEN 79% market | DEN 85% model | Denver Broncos -455 | 6.1 points |
| Spread | DEN -8.5 | DEN -13.8 | Denver Broncos -8.5 | 5.3 points |
| Total | O/U 41.5 | 47.0 | Over 41.5 | 5.5 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Las Vegas Raiders entered Week 11 at 4-5 with a -3.3 point differential per game. Denver Broncos entered at 7-2 and +1.3 per game.
Denver Broncos receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Raiders vs. Broncos?
The FTT model picks Denver Broncos. Its projected score is LV 17, DEN 30.
What is the Raiders vs. Broncos spread pick?
The model leans Denver Broncos -8.5, with a 5.3-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Raiders vs. Broncos over/under pick?
The model leans over 41.5, with a 5.5-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.