Away
28Cincinnati Bengals
- Record
- 6-2
- FTT rating
- +5.7
- Listed QB
- Burrow
NFL Week 11 · Monday, Nov 23 · 8:15 PM ET
Bengals vs. Commanders prediction.
Cincinnati Bengals is the FTT straight-up pick at 71% model probability. The projected score is CIN 28, WAS 21.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
21Washington Commanders
- Record
- 3-5-1
- FTT rating
- -3.6
- Listed QB
- Daniels
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | WAS 36% market | WAS 29% model | Cincinnati Bengals -205 | 6.2 points |
| Spread | WAS +3.5 | WAS +7.3 | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | 3.8 points |
| Total | O/U 51.5 | 49.5 | Under 51.5 | 2.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Cincinnati Bengals entered Week 11 at 6-2 with a +8.1 point differential per game. Washington Commanders entered at 3-5-1 and -3.0 per game.
Washington Commanders receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bengals vs. Commanders?
The FTT model picks Cincinnati Bengals. Its projected score is CIN 28, WAS 21.
What is the Bengals vs. Commanders spread pick?
The model leans Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, with a 3.8-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bengals vs. Commanders over/under pick?
The model leans under 51.5, with a 2.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.