Away
19Minnesota Vikings
- Record
- 6-2
- FTT rating
- +1.5
- Listed QB
- Cousins
NFL Week 11 · Sunday, Nov 22 · 8:20 PM ET
Vikings vs. 49ers prediction.
San Francisco 49ers is the FTT straight-up pick at 62% model probability. The projected score is MIN 19, SF 23.
Market snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
23San Francisco 49ers
- Record
- 7-1
- FTT rating
- +5.6
- Listed QB
- Purdy
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | SF 64% market | SF 62% model | San Francisco 49ers -205 | 2.4 points |
| Spread | SF -3.5 | SF -4.1 | Pass | 0.6 points |
| Total | O/U 45.5 | 41.6 | Under 45.5 | 3.9 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Minnesota Vikings entered Week 11 at 6-2 with a +3.8 point differential per game. San Francisco 49ers entered at 7-1 and +9.9 per game.
The game is at a neutral site. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Vikings vs. 49ers?
The FTT model picks San Francisco 49ers. Its projected score is MIN 19, SF 23.
What is the Vikings vs. 49ers spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -3.5.
What is the Vikings vs. 49ers over/under pick?
The model leans under 45.5, with a 3.9-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 14, 2026, 8:01 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.