AwayRaiders
HomePatriots
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots 16–27
- Win pick
- Patriots 80%
- ATS lean
- NE -3.5
- Total lean
- Under 45.5
Market: LV +160 · NE -192 · total 45.5
Full game file →2026 NFL · market snapshot Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT
NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread.
New England Patriots has the largest current model-to-spread difference. Every number below is tied to the displayed market snapshot and a pregame model run.
- Games on the slate
- 15
- 2025 straight up
- 60.1%
- 2025 ATS
- 81–82
- 2025 totals
- 81–80
AwayBrowns
HomeJets
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland Browns 23–19
- Win pick
- Browns 63%
- ATS lean
- CLE +2.5
- Total lean
- Over 39.5
Market: CLE +114 · NYJ -135 · total 39.5
Full game file →
AwayGiants
HomeCommanders
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
New York Giants 25–22
- Win pick
- Giants 58%
- ATS lean
- NYG +3.5
- Total lean
- Over 41.5
Market: NYG +150 · WAS -180 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwayEagles
HomeJaguars
Sunday · Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars 15–28
- Win pick
- Jaguars 85%
- ATS lean
- JAX -7.5
- Total lean
- Over 41.5
Market: PHI +310 · JAX -395 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwayBengals
HomeDolphins
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals 24–22
- Win pick
- Bengals 55%
- ATS lean
- MIA +7
- Total lean
- Over 43.5
Market: CIN -355 · MIA +280 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayVikings
HomeSaints
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings 25–18
- Win pick
- Vikings 70%
- ATS lean
- MIN -2.5
- Total lean
- Over 41.5
Market: MIN -130 · NO +110 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwayBears
HomePackers
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears 26–20
- Win pick
- Bears 67%
- ATS lean
- CHI -1.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: CHI -130 · GB +110 · total 46.5
Full game file →
AwayBroncos
HomeChargers
Sunday · Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
Denver Broncos 25–18
- Win pick
- Broncos 70%
- ATS lean
- DEN -3.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: DEN -192 · LAC +160 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwayTexans
HomeTitans
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans 26–16
- Win pick
- Texans 77%
- ATS lean
- HOU -7
- Total lean
- Over 37.5
Market: HOU -345 · TEN +275 · total 37.5
Full game file →
Away49ers
HomeSeahawks
Sunday · Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
Seattle Seahawks 23–24
- Win pick
- Seahawks 51%
- ATS lean
- SF +3
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: SF +136 · SEA -162 · total 45.5
Full game file →
AwayColts
HomeSteelers
Sunday · Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–24
- Win pick
- Steelers 53%
- ATS lean
- IND +3
- Total lean
- Over 43.5
Market: IND +124 · PIT -148 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayLions
HomeCardinals
Sunday · Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
Detroit Lions 31–23
- Win pick
- Lions 71%
- ATS lean
- DET -5.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: DET -258 · ARI +210 · total 54.5
Full game file →
AwayRavens
HomeFalcons
Sunday · Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons 24–25
- Win pick
- Falcons 54%
- ATS lean
- BAL +3
- Total lean
- Over 43.5
Market: BAL +145 · ATL -175 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayBills
HomeRams
Monday · Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams 23–28
- Win pick
- Rams 64%
- ATS lean
- LAR -3.5
- Total lean
- Under 54.5
Market: BUF +150 · LAR -180 · total 54.5
Full game file →
AwayBuccaneers
HomeCowboys
Thursday · Oct 8 · 8:15 PM ET
Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16
This game started before FTT's first prediction snapshot, so the page shows market context and the result when available without inventing a pregame pick.
Market: TB +400 · DAL -535 · total 49.5
Full game file →Read the number
A model difference, not a promise.
FTT blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent scoring, prior-season strength, site and rest. The market line is a separate input used only to calculate the displayed difference.
The same rules went 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals across 208 games in the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward. The ATS and totals records were effectively coin flips; the displayed differences are research signals, not a proven wagering edge.
See the complete methodology →What are the best NFL Week 5 picks against the spread?
The page ranks the current model differences and shows the evidence for every game. A larger difference is a stronger model signal, not a guaranteed result.
Where do the odds and lines come from?
FTT reads the nflverse schedule release, stores the market snapshot time, and freezes each pregame record at kickoff. It does not scrape or name an individual sportsbook.
How does the FTT NFL model work?
The model blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent points scored and allowed, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market lines are shown for comparison, not used to create the team rating.
Do the picks update after kickoff?
No. Pregame projections and the attached line snapshot freeze at kickoff. Final scores then grade the archived call without rewriting it.