Away
23Cleveland Browns
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- -2.8
- Listed QB
- Watson
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Browns vs. Jets prediction.
Cleveland Browns is the FTT straight-up pick at 63% model probability. The projected score is CLE 23, NYJ 19.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
19New York Jets
- Record
- 1-3
- FTT rating
- -8.2
- Listed QB
- Smith
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NYJ 55% market | NYJ 37% model | Cleveland Browns +114 | 17.7 points |
| Spread | NYJ -2.5 | NYJ +4.3 | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | 6.8 points |
| Total | O/U 39.5 | 42.5 | Over 39.5 | 3.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Cleveland Browns entered Week 5 at 3-1 with a -3.5 point differential per game. New York Jets entered at 1-3 and -2.0 per game.
New York Jets receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Browns vs. Jets?
The FTT model picks Cleveland Browns. Its projected score is CLE 23, NYJ 19.
What is the Browns vs. Jets spread pick?
The model leans Cleveland Browns +2.5, with a 6.8-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Browns vs. Jets over/under pick?
The model leans over 39.5, with a 3.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.