Away
24Cincinnati Bengals
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- -0.6
- Listed QB
- Burrow
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Bengals vs. Dolphins prediction.
Cincinnati Bengals is the FTT straight-up pick at 55% model probability. The projected score is CIN 24, MIA 22.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
22Miami Dolphins
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- -3.9
- Listed QB
- Willis
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | MIA 25% market | MIA 45% model | Cincinnati Bengals -355 | 19.4 points |
| Spread | MIA +7 | MIA +1.8 | Miami Dolphins +7 | 5.2 points |
| Total | O/U 43.5 | 45.4 | Over 43.5 | 1.9 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Cincinnati Bengals entered Week 5 at 2-2 with a +3.0 point differential per game. Miami Dolphins entered at 0-4 and -13.8 per game.
Miami Dolphins receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bengals vs. Dolphins?
The FTT model picks Cincinnati Bengals. Its projected score is CIN 24, MIA 22.
What is the Bengals vs. Dolphins spread pick?
The model leans Miami Dolphins +7, with a 5.2-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bengals vs. Dolphins over/under pick?
The model leans over 43.5, with a 1.9-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.