Away
25Minnesota Vikings
- Record
- 4-0
- FTT rating
- +3.2
- Listed QB
- Murray
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Vikings vs. Saints prediction.
Minnesota Vikings is the FTT straight-up pick at 70% model probability. The projected score is MIN 25, NO 18.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
18New Orleans Saints
- Record
- 1-3
- FTT rating
- -5.1
- Listed QB
- Shough
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NO 46% market | NO 30% model | Minnesota Vikings -130 | 15.6 points |
| Spread | NO +2.5 | NO +7 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 | 4.5 points |
| Total | O/U 41.5 | 43.1 | Over 41.5 | 1.6 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Minnesota Vikings entered Week 5 at 4-0 with a +8.8 point differential per game. New Orleans Saints entered at 1-3 and -5.8 per game.
New Orleans Saints receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Vikings vs. Saints?
The FTT model picks Minnesota Vikings. Its projected score is MIN 25, NO 18.
What is the Vikings vs. Saints spread pick?
The model leans Minnesota Vikings -2.5, with a 4.5-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Vikings vs. Saints over/under pick?
The model leans over 41.5, with a 1.6-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.