What are the NFL Week 5 straight-up picks?
FTT ranks the complete weekly slate from a pregame team-strength model and links every answer to its matchup evidence.
2026 NFL · Week 5 · Win probabilities
NFL Week 5 Straight-Up Picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars is the strongest straight-up pick at 85%, followed by the rest of the slate in probability order.
Updated Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Projections refresh before kickoff, then the archived call stays fixed.
| Rank | Pick | Opponent | FTT win chance | Market | Projected score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs. Eagles | 85% | -395 | PHI 15, JAX 28 | Game file → |
| 2 |  New England Patriots | vs. Raiders | 80% | -192 | LV 16, NE 27 | Game file → |
| 3 |  Houston Texans | vs. Titans | 77% | -345 | HOU 26, TEN 16 | Game file → |
| 4 |  Detroit Lions | vs. Cardinals | 71% | -258 | DET 31, ARI 23 | Game file → |
| 5 |  Denver Broncos | vs. Chargers | 70% | -192 | DEN 25, LAC 18 | Game file → |
| 6 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs. Saints | 70% | -130 | MIN 25, NO 18 | Game file → |
| 7 |  Chicago Bears | vs. Packers | 67% | -130 | CHI 26, GB 20 | Game file → |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs. Bills | 64% | -180 | BUF 23, LAR 28 | Game file → |
| 9 |  Cleveland Browns | vs. Jets | 63% | +114 | CLE 23, NYJ 19 | Game file → |
| 10 |  New York Giants | vs. Commanders | 58% | +150 | NYG 25, WAS 22 | Game file → |
| 11 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs. Dolphins | 55% | -355 | CIN 24, MIA 22 | Game file → |
| 12 |  Atlanta Falcons | vs. Ravens | 54% | -175 | BAL 24, ATL 25 | Game file → |
| 13 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Colts | 53% | -148 | IND 23, PIT 24 | Game file → |
| 14 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs. 49ers | 51% | -162 | SF 23, SEA 24 | Game file → |
How to use it
Rank the slate by win probability.
The table orders every pick by the model's estimated chance to win, independent of the point spread. Moneylines are displayed as market context.
Use the probability gap to separate clear favorites from toss-ups. A 52% pick and a 51% pick should not be treated as meaningfully different.
The model uses only information available before the target week: opponent-adjusted team strength, scoring form, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market odds are shown for context and do not create the team rating.
Read the methodology →When do these NFL picks update?
The board refreshes with the scheduled data release before kickoff. Each game prediction freezes when that game starts.
Does the model use the betting line to make its pick?
No. Team strength, scoring, site and rest create the prediction. The timestamped market line is shown separately for comparison.
Are these guaranteed picks?
No. Probabilities and score projections describe uncertainty; they do not guarantee an outcome or profit.