Away
25Denver Broncos
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +5.5
- Listed QB
- Nix
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET
Broncos vs. Chargers prediction.
Denver Broncos is the FTT straight-up pick at 70% model probability. The projected score is DEN 25, LAC 18.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
18Los Angeles Chargers
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- -3.1
- Listed QB
- Herbert
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | LAC 37% market | LAC 30% model | Denver Broncos -192 | 7.1 points |
| Spread | LAC +3.5 | LAC +7.1 | Denver Broncos -3.5 | 3.6 points |
| Total | O/U 41.5 | 42.2 | Pass | 0.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Denver Broncos entered Week 5 at 2-2 with a -5.0 point differential per game. Los Angeles Chargers entered at 0-4 and -9.8 per game.
Los Angeles Chargers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Broncos vs. Chargers?
The FTT model picks Denver Broncos. Its projected score is DEN 25, LAC 18.
What is the Broncos vs. Chargers spread pick?
The model leans Denver Broncos -3.5, with a 3.6-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Broncos vs. Chargers over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 41.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.