Away
23Buffalo Bills
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- +3.6
- Listed QB
- Allen
NFL Week 5 · Monday, Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Bills vs. Rams prediction.
Los Angeles Rams is the FTT straight-up pick at 64% model probability. The projected score is BUF 23, LAR 28.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
28Los Angeles Rams
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +7.0
- Listed QB
- Stafford
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | LAR 62% market | LAR 64% model | Los Angeles Rams -180 | 2.5 points |
| Spread | LAR -3.5 | LAR -4.9 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 1.4 points |
| Total | O/U 54.5 | 50.3 | Under 54.5 | 4.2 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Buffalo Bills entered Week 5 at 3-1 with a +5.0 point differential per game. Los Angeles Rams entered at 2-2 and +0.5 per game.
Los Angeles Rams receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bills vs. Rams?
The FTT model picks Los Angeles Rams. Its projected score is BUF 23, LAR 28.
What is the Bills vs. Rams spread pick?
The model leans Los Angeles Rams -3.5, with a 1.4-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bills vs. Rams over/under pick?
The model leans under 54.5, with a 4.2-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.