Away
16Las Vegas Raiders
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- -3.7
- Listed QB
- Cousins
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Raiders vs. Patriots prediction.
New England Patriots is the FTT straight-up pick at 80% model probability. The projected score is LV 16, NE 27.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
27New England Patriots
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +6.2
- Listed QB
- Maye
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NE 63% market | NE 80% model | New England Patriots -192 | 17.1 points |
| Spread | NE -3.5 | NE -11.4 | New England Patriots -3.5 | 7.9 points |
| Total | O/U 45.5 | 43.1 | Under 45.5 | 2.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Las Vegas Raiders entered Week 5 at 3-1 with a +7.8 point differential per game. New England Patriots entered at 2-2 and -3.0 per game.
New England Patriots receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Raiders vs. Patriots?
The FTT model picks New England Patriots. Its projected score is LV 16, NE 27.
What is the Raiders vs. Patriots spread pick?
The model leans New England Patriots -3.5, with a 7.9-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Raiders vs. Patriots over/under pick?
The model leans under 45.5, with a 2.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.