Away
31Detroit Lions
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +1.2
- Listed QB
- Goff
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET
Lions vs. Cardinals prediction.
Detroit Lions is the FTT straight-up pick at 71% model probability. The projected score is DET 31, ARI 23.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
23Arizona Cardinals
- Record
- 1-3
- FTT rating
- -7.7
- Listed QB
- Brissett
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | ARI 31% market | ARI 29% model | Detroit Lions -258 | 1.8 points |
| Spread | ARI +5.5 | ARI +7.4 | Detroit Lions -5.5 | 1.9 points |
| Total | O/U 54.5 | 53.6 | Pass | 0.9 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Detroit Lions entered Week 5 at 2-2 with a -2.0 point differential per game. Arizona Cardinals entered at 1-3 and -7.5 per game.
Arizona Cardinals receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Lions vs. Cardinals?
The FTT model picks Detroit Lions. Its projected score is DET 31, ARI 23.
What is the Lions vs. Cardinals spread pick?
The model leans Detroit Lions -5.5, with a 1.9-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Lions vs. Cardinals over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 54.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.