Away
24Baltimore Ravens
- Record
- 3-1
- FTT rating
- +0.2
- Listed QB
- Huntley
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 8:20 PM ET
Ravens vs. Falcons prediction.
Atlanta Falcons is the FTT straight-up pick at 54% model probability. The projected score is BAL 24, ATL 25.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
25Atlanta Falcons
- Record
- 2-2
- FTT rating
- +0.0
- Listed QB
- Jr.
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | ATL 61% market | ATL 54% model | Atlanta Falcons -175 | 7.4 points |
| Spread | ATL -3 | ATL -1.2 | Baltimore Ravens +3 | 1.8 points |
| Total | O/U 43.5 | 48.1 | Over 43.5 | 4.6 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Baltimore Ravens entered Week 5 at 3-1 with a +5.0 point differential per game. Atlanta Falcons entered at 2-2 and +1.0 per game.
Atlanta Falcons receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Ravens vs. Falcons?
The FTT model picks Atlanta Falcons. Its projected score is BAL 24, ATL 25.
What is the Ravens vs. Falcons spread pick?
The model leans Baltimore Ravens +3, with a 1.8-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Ravens vs. Falcons over/under pick?
The model leans over 43.5, with a 4.6-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.