Away
26Houston Texans
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- +0.6
- Listed QB
- Stroud
NFL Week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET
Texans vs. Titans prediction.
Houston Texans is the FTT straight-up pick at 77% model probability. The projected score is HOU 26, TEN 16.
Market snapshot: Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
16Tennessee Titans
- Record
- 0-4
- FTT rating
- -10.6
- Listed QB
- Ward
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | TEN 26% market | TEN 23% model | Houston Texans -345 | 2.1 points |
| Spread | TEN +7 | TEN +9.7 | Houston Texans -7 | 2.7 points |
| Total | O/U 37.5 | 42.2 | Over 37.5 | 4.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Houston Texans entered Week 5 at 0-4 with a -6.3 point differential per game. Tennessee Titans entered at 0-4 and -7.0 per game.
Tennessee Titans receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Texans vs. Titans?
The FTT model picks Houston Texans. Its projected score is HOU 26, TEN 16.
What is the Texans vs. Titans spread pick?
The model leans Houston Texans -7, with a 2.7-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Texans vs. Titans over/under pick?
The model leans over 37.5, with a 4.7-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 10, 2026, 8:27 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.