AwayJaguars
HomeTitans
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars 30–14
- Win pick
- Jaguars 89%
- ATS lean
- JAX -9.5
- Total lean
- Under 45.5
Market: JAX -455 · TEN +350 · total 45.5
Full game file →2026 NFL · market snapshot Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST
NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars has the largest current model-to-spread difference. Every number below is tied to the displayed market snapshot and a pregame model run.
- Games on the slate
- 14
- 2025 straight up
- 60.1%
- 2025 ATS
- 81–82
- 2025 totals
- 81–80
AwayChiefs
HomeFalcons
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons 21–22
- Win pick
- Falcons 53%
- ATS lean
- ATL +3
- Total lean
- Under 46.5
Market: KC -175 · ATL +145 · total 46.5
Full game file →
AwaySteelers
HomeBengals
Sunday · Nov 15 · 8:20 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–23
- Win pick
- Steelers 51%
- ATS lean
- PIT +3.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: PIT +150 · CIN -180 · total 47.5
Full game file →
AwayBills
HomeJets
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo Bills 31–20
- Win pick
- Bills 80%
- ATS lean
- BUF -7.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: BUF -410 · NYJ +320 · total 50.5
Full game file →
AwayLions
HomePatriots
Sunday · Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET
New England Patriots 24–25
- Win pick
- Patriots 55%
- ATS lean
- NE +1.5
- Total lean
- Pass
Market: DET -130 · NE +110 · total 49.5
Full game file →
AwayChargers
HomeRavens
Monday · Nov 16 · 8:15 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens 20–24
- Win pick
- Ravens 62%
- ATS lean
- BAL -1.5
- Total lean
- Over 38.5
Market: LAC +100 · BAL -120 · total 38.5
Full game file →
AwayCommanders
HomeGiants
Thursday · Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET
New York Giants 22–26
- Win pick
- Giants 61%
- ATS lean
- NYG -1.5
- Total lean
- Over 44.5
Market: WAS -102 · NYG -118 · total 44.5
Full game file →
AwayPanthers
HomeSaints
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints 24–25
- Win pick
- Saints 52%
- ATS lean
- NO +1.5
- Total lean
- Over 47.5
Market: CAR -125 · NO +105 · total 47.5
Full game file →
AwayRams
HomeCardinals
Sunday · Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams 29–20
- Win pick
- Rams 75%
- ATS lean
- LAR -7.5
- Total lean
- Over 47.5
Market: LAR -355 · ARI +280 · total 47.5
Full game file →
AwayDolphins
HomeColts
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts 23–24
- Win pick
- Colts 54%
- ATS lean
- MIA +2.5
- Total lean
- Over 43.5
Market: MIA +114 · IND -135 · total 43.5
Full game file →
AwayVikings
HomePackers
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers 19–20
- Win pick
- Packers 55%
- ATS lean
- Pass
- Total lean
- Under 41.5
Market: MIN +124 · GB -148 · total 41.5
Full game file →
AwayTexans
HomeBrowns
Sunday · Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans 24–19
- Win pick
- Texans 65%
- ATS lean
- Pass
- Total lean
- Over 39.5
Market: HOU -205 · CLE +170 · total 39.5
Full game file →
Away49ers
HomeCowboys
Sunday · Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers 28–24
- Win pick
- 49ers 62%
- ATS lean
- Pass
- Total lean
- Under 53.5
Market: SF -205 · DAL +170 · total 53.5
Full game file →
AwaySeahawks
HomeRaiders
Sunday · Nov 15 · 4:05 PM ET
Seattle Seahawks 28–20
- Win pick
- Seahawks 71%
- ATS lean
- —
- Total lean
- —
Market: SEA — · LV — · total —
Full game file →Read the number
A model difference, not a promise.
FTT blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent scoring, prior-season strength, site and rest. The market line is a separate input used only to calculate the displayed difference.
The same rules went 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals across 208 games in the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward. The ATS and totals records were effectively coin flips; the displayed differences are research signals, not a proven wagering edge.
See the complete methodology →What are the best NFL Week 10 picks against the spread?
The page ranks the current model differences and shows the evidence for every game. A larger difference is a stronger model signal, not a guaranteed result.
Where do the odds and lines come from?
FTT reads the nflverse schedule release, stores the market snapshot time, and freezes each pregame record at kickoff. It does not scrape or name an individual sportsbook.
How does the FTT NFL model work?
The model blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent points scored and allowed, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market lines are shown for comparison, not used to create the team rating.
Do the picks update after kickoff?
No. Pregame projections and the attached line snapshot freeze at kickoff. Final scores then grade the archived call without rewriting it.