Away
22Washington Commanders
- Record
- 2-4-1
- FTT rating
- -4.9
- Listed QB
- Daniels
NFL Week 10 · Thursday, Nov 12 · 8:15 PM ET
Commanders vs. Giants prediction.
New York Giants is the FTT straight-up pick at 61% model probability. The projected score is WAS 22, NYG 26.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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26New York Giants
- Record
- 4-2-1
- FTT rating
- -2.5
- Listed QB
- McCarthy
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NYG 52% market | NYG 61% model | New York Giants -118 | 9.6 points |
| Spread | NYG -1.5 | NYG -3.9 | New York Giants -1.5 | 2.4 points |
| Total | O/U 44.5 | 47.6 | Over 44.5 | 3.1 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Washington Commanders entered Week 10 at 2-4-1 with a -3.3 point differential per game. New York Giants entered at 4-2-1 and +0.3 per game.
New York Giants receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Commanders vs. Giants?
The FTT model picks New York Giants. Its projected score is WAS 22, NYG 26.
What is the Commanders vs. Giants spread pick?
The model leans New York Giants -1.5, with a 2.4-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Commanders vs. Giants over/under pick?
The model leans over 44.5, with a 3.1-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.