Away
24Detroit Lions
- Record
- 5-2
- FTT rating
- +5.2
- Listed QB
- Goff
NFL Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET
Lions vs. Patriots prediction.
New England Patriots is the FTT straight-up pick at 55% model probability. The projected score is DET 24, NE 25.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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25New England Patriots
- Record
- 5-3
- FTT rating
- +6.8
- Listed QB
- Maye
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NE 46% market | NE 55% model | New England Patriots +110 | 8.9 points |
| Spread | NE +1.5 | NE -1.6 | New England Patriots +1.5 | 3.1 points |
| Total | O/U 49.5 | 49.3 | Pass | 0.2 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Detroit Lions entered Week 10 at 5-2 with a +3.3 point differential per game. New England Patriots entered at 5-3 and +2.8 per game.
The game is at a neutral site. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Lions vs. Patriots?
The FTT model picks New England Patriots. Its projected score is DET 24, NE 25.
What is the Lions vs. Patriots spread pick?
The model leans New England Patriots +1.5, with a 3.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Lions vs. Patriots over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 49.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.