Away
19Minnesota Vikings
- Record
- 6-1
- FTT rating
- +4.5
- Listed QB
- Murray
NFL Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Vikings vs. Packers prediction.
Green Bay Packers is the FTT straight-up pick at 55% model probability. The projected score is MIN 19, GB 20.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
20Green Bay Packers
- Record
- 5-3
- FTT rating
- +4.6
- Listed QB
- Love
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | GB 57% market | GB 55% model | Green Bay Packers -148 | 2.0 points |
| Spread | GB -2.5 | GB -1.8 | Pass | 0.7 points |
| Total | O/U 41.5 | 38.8 | Under 41.5 | 2.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Minnesota Vikings entered Week 10 at 6-1 with a +6.7 point differential per game. Green Bay Packers entered at 5-3 and +0.9 per game.
Green Bay Packers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Vikings vs. Packers?
The FTT model picks Green Bay Packers. Its projected score is MIN 19, GB 20.
What is the Vikings vs. Packers spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +2.5.
What is the Vikings vs. Packers over/under pick?
The model leans under 41.5, with a 2.7-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.