Away
24Houston Texans
- Record
- 2-5
- FTT rating
- +1.9
- Listed QB
- Stroud
NFL Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Texans vs. Browns prediction.
Houston Texans is the FTT straight-up pick at 65% model probability. The projected score is HOU 24, CLE 19.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
19Cleveland Browns
- Record
- 5-3
- FTT rating
- -4.7
- Listed QB
- Watson
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | CLE 36% market | CLE 35% model | Houston Texans -205 | 0.2 points |
| Spread | CLE +4.5 | CLE +5.1 | Pass | 0.6 points |
| Total | O/U 39.5 | 42.5 | Over 39.5 | 3.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Houston Texans entered Week 10 at 2-5 with a -0.7 point differential per game. Cleveland Browns entered at 5-3 and -4.3 per game.
Cleveland Browns receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Texans vs. Browns?
The FTT model picks Houston Texans. Its projected score is HOU 24, CLE 19.
What is the Texans vs. Browns spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -4.5.
What is the Texans vs. Browns over/under pick?
The model leans over 39.5, with a 3.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.