What are the NFL Week 10 straight-up picks?
FTT ranks the complete weekly slate from a pregame team-strength model and links every answer to its matchup evidence.
2026 NFL · Week 10 · Win probabilities
NFL Week 10 Straight-Up Picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars is the strongest straight-up pick at 89%, followed by the rest of the slate in probability order.
Updated Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Projections refresh before kickoff, then the archived call stays fixed.
| Rank | Pick | Opponent | FTT win chance | Market | Projected score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs. Titans | 89% | -455 | JAX 30, TEN 14 | Game file → |
| 2 |  Buffalo Bills | vs. Jets | 80% | -410 | BUF 31, NYJ 20 | Game file → |
| 3 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs. Cardinals | 75% | -355 | LAR 29, ARI 20 | Game file → |
| 4 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs. Raiders | 71% | — | SEA 28, LV 20 | Game file → |
| 5 |  Houston Texans | vs. Browns | 65% | -205 | HOU 24, CLE 19 | Game file → |
| 6 |  Baltimore Ravens | vs. Chargers | 62% | -120 | LAC 20, BAL 24 | Game file → |
| 7 |  San Francisco 49ers | vs. Cowboys | 62% | -205 | SF 28, DAL 24 | Game file → |
| 8 |  New York Giants | vs. Commanders | 61% | -118 | WAS 22, NYG 26 | Game file → |
| 9 |  Green Bay Packers | vs. Vikings | 55% | -148 | MIN 19, GB 20 | Game file → |
| 10 |  New England Patriots | vs. Lions | 55% | +110 | DET 24, NE 25 | Game file → |
| 11 |  Indianapolis Colts | vs. Dolphins | 54% | -135 | MIA 23, IND 24 | Game file → |
| 12 |  Atlanta Falcons | vs. Chiefs | 53% | +145 | KC 21, ATL 22 | Game file → |
| 13 |  New Orleans Saints | vs. Panthers | 52% | +105 | CAR 24, NO 25 | Game file → |
| 14 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Bengals | 51% | +150 | PIT 24, CIN 23 | Game file → |
How to use it
Rank the slate by win probability.
The table orders every pick by the model's estimated chance to win, independent of the point spread. Moneylines are displayed as market context.
Use the probability gap to separate clear favorites from toss-ups. A 52% pick and a 51% pick should not be treated as meaningfully different.
The model uses only information available before the target week: opponent-adjusted team strength, scoring form, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market odds are shown for context and do not create the team rating.
Read the methodology →When do these NFL picks update?
The board refreshes with the scheduled data release before kickoff. Each game prediction freezes when that game starts.
Does the model use the betting line to make its pick?
No. Team strength, scoring, site and rest create the prediction. The timestamped market line is shown separately for comparison.
Are these guaranteed picks?
No. Probabilities and score projections describe uncertainty; they do not guarantee an outcome or profit.