Away
23Miami Dolphins
- Record
- 1-6
- FTT rating
- -4.1
- Listed QB
- Willis
NFL Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Dolphins vs. Colts prediction.
Indianapolis Colts is the FTT straight-up pick at 54% model probability. The projected score is MIA 23, IND 24.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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24Indianapolis Colts
- Record
- 2-6
- FTT rating
- -4.4
- Listed QB
- Jones
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | IND 55% market | IND 54% model | Indianapolis Colts -135 | 1.6 points |
| Spread | IND -2.5 | IND -1.2 | Miami Dolphins +2.5 | 1.3 points |
| Total | O/U 43.5 | 46.1 | Over 43.5 | 2.6 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Miami Dolphins entered Week 10 at 1-6 with a -9.1 point differential per game. Indianapolis Colts entered at 2-6 and -7.6 per game.
Indianapolis Colts receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Dolphins vs. Colts?
The FTT model picks Indianapolis Colts. Its projected score is MIA 23, IND 24.
What is the Dolphins vs. Colts spread pick?
The model leans Miami Dolphins +2.5, with a 1.3-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Dolphins vs. Colts over/under pick?
The model leans over 43.5, with a 2.6-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.