Away
31Buffalo Bills
- Record
- 6-1
- FTT rating
- +7.3
- Listed QB
- Allen
NFL Week 10 · Sunday, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Bills vs. Jets prediction.
Buffalo Bills is the FTT straight-up pick at 80% model probability. The projected score is BUF 31, NYJ 20.
Market snapshot: Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
20New York Jets
- Record
- 2-6
- FTT rating
- -5.6
- Listed QB
- Smith
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NYJ 23% market | NYJ 20% model | Buffalo Bills -410 | 2.8 points |
| Spread | NYJ +7.5 | NYJ +11.3 | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | 3.8 points |
| Total | O/U 50.5 | 51.0 | Pass | 0.5 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Buffalo Bills entered Week 10 at 6-1 with a +7.4 point differential per game. New York Jets entered at 2-6 and -2.3 per game.
New York Jets receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bills vs. Jets?
The FTT model picks Buffalo Bills. Its projected score is BUF 31, NYJ 20.
What is the Bills vs. Jets spread pick?
The model leans Buffalo Bills -7.5, with a 3.8-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Bills vs. Jets over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 50.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 4, 2026, 8:35 PM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.