New England Patriots 24–21
- Win pick
- Patriots 56%
- ATS lean
- NE +3
- Total lean
- Under 50.5
Market: NE +130 · CHI -155 · total 50.5
Full game file →Houston Texans carries the strongest straight-up model probability on the slate. Every number below is tied to the displayed market snapshot and a pregame model run.
New England Patriots 24–21
Market: NE +130 · CHI -155 · total 50.5
Full game file →Pittsburgh Steelers 20–28
Market: NO -180 · PIT +150 · total 44.5
Full game file →San Francisco 49ers 24–23
Market: SF -175 · ATL +145 · total 49.5
Full game file →Baltimore Ravens 24–26
Market: CIN +124 · BAL -148 · total 51.5
Full game file →Carolina Panthers 21–25
Market: TB +154 · CAR -185 · total 44.5
Full game file →Cleveland Browns 23–15
Market: CLE -125 · TEN +105 · total 37.5
Full game file →Houston Texans 17–29
Market: NYG +400 · HOU -535 · total 42.5
Full game file →Minnesota Vikings 18–27
Market: IND +235 · MIN -290 · total 41.5
Full game file →New York Jets 19–23
Market: MIA +190 · NYJ -230 · total 38.5
Full game file →Denver Broncos 28–18
Market: DEN -238 · ARI +195 · total 43.5
Full game file →Detroit Lions 24–26
Market: GB +136 · DET -162 · total 53.5
Full game file →Los Angeles Rams 26–22
Market: LAR -225 · LV +185 · total 48.5
Full game file →Seattle Seahawks 21–23
Market: KC +130 · SEA -155 · total 42.5
Full game file →Philadelphia Eagles 23–24
Market: DAL -225 · PHI +185 · total 44.5
Full game file →FTT blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent scoring, prior-season strength, site and rest. The market line is a separate input used only to calculate the displayed difference.
The same rules went 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals across 208 games in the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward. The ATS and totals records were effectively coin flips; the displayed differences are research signals, not a proven wagering edge.
See the complete methodology →The page ranks the current model differences and shows the evidence for every game. A larger difference is a stronger model signal, not a guaranteed result.
FTT reads the nflverse schedule release, stores the market snapshot time, and freezes each pregame record at kickoff. It does not scrape or name an individual sportsbook.
The model blends opponent-adjusted scoring margin, recent points scored and allowed, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market lines are shown for comparison, not used to create the team rating.
No. Pregame projections and the attached line snapshot freeze at kickoff. Final scores then grade the archived call without rewriting it.