Away
24New England Patriots
- Record
- 4-2
- FTT rating
- +8.4
- Listed QB
- Maye
NFL Week 7 · Thursday, Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET
Patriots vs. Bears prediction.
New England Patriots is the FTT straight-up pick at 56% model probability. The projected score is NE 24, CHI 21.
Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
21Chicago Bears
- Record
- 4-2
- FTT rating
- +4.8
- Listed QB
- Williams
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | CHI 58% market | CHI 44% model | New England Patriots +130 | 14.6 points |
| Spread | CHI -3 | CHI +2.1 | New England Patriots +3 | 5.1 points |
| Total | O/U 50.5 | 44.8 | Under 50.5 | 5.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
New England Patriots entered Week 7 at 4-2 with a +3.8 point differential per game. Chicago Bears entered at 4-2 and +5.2 per game.
Chicago Bears receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Patriots vs. Bears?
The FTT model picks New England Patriots. Its projected score is NE 24, CHI 21.
What is the Patriots vs. Bears spread pick?
The model leans New England Patriots +3, with a 5.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Patriots vs. Bears over/under pick?
The model leans under 50.5, with a 5.7-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.