Away
19Miami Dolphins
- Record
- 0-5
- FTT rating
- -5.7
- Listed QB
- Willis
NFL Week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET
Dolphins vs. Jets prediction.
New York Jets is the FTT straight-up pick at 61% model probability. The projected score is MIA 19, NYJ 23.
Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
23New York Jets
- Record
- 2-4
- FTT rating
- -2.9
- Listed QB
- Smith
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NYJ 67% market | NYJ 61% model | New York Jets -230 | 6.0 points |
| Spread | NYJ -4.5 | NYJ -3.7 | Pass | 0.8 points |
| Total | O/U 38.5 | 41.8 | Over 38.5 | 3.3 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Miami Dolphins entered Week 7 at 0-5 with a -12.4 point differential per game. New York Jets entered at 2-4 and -1.7 per game.
New York Jets receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Dolphins vs. Jets?
The FTT model picks New York Jets. Its projected score is MIA 19, NYJ 23.
What is the Dolphins vs. Jets spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +4.5.
What is the Dolphins vs. Jets over/under pick?
The model leans over 38.5, with a 3.3-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.