What are the NFL Week 7 straight-up picks?
FTT ranks the complete weekly slate from a pregame team-strength model and links every answer to its matchup evidence.
2026 NFL · Week 7 · Win probabilities
NFL Week 7 Straight-Up Picks.
Houston Texans is the strongest straight-up pick at 81%, followed by the rest of the slate in probability order.
Updated Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Projections refresh before kickoff, then the archived call stays fixed.
| Rank | Pick | Opponent | FTT win chance | Market | Projected score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Texans | vs. Giants | 81% | -535 | NYG 17, HOU 29 | Game file → |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | vs. Cardinals | 76% | -238 | DEN 28, ARI 18 | Game file → |
| 3 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs. Colts | 75% | -290 | IND 18, MIN 27 | Game file → |
| 4 |  Cleveland Browns | vs. Titans | 71% | -125 | CLE 23, TEN 15 | Game file → |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Saints | 71% | +150 | NO 20, PIT 28 | Game file → |
| 6 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs. Raiders | 63% | -225 | LAR 26, LV 22 | Game file → |
| 7 |  Carolina Panthers | vs. Buccaneers | 62% | -185 | TB 21, CAR 25 | Game file → |
| 8 |  New York Jets | vs. Dolphins | 61% | -230 | MIA 19, NYJ 23 | Game file → |
| 9 |  New England Patriots | vs. Bears | 56% | +130 | NE 24, CHI 21 | Game file → |
| 10 |  Detroit Lions | vs. Packers | 56% | -162 | GB 24, DET 26 | Game file → |
| 11 |  Baltimore Ravens | vs. Bengals | 56% | -148 | CIN 24, BAL 26 | Game file → |
| 12 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs. Chiefs | 55% | -155 | KC 21, SEA 23 | Game file → |
| 13 |  Philadelphia Eagles | vs. Cowboys | 55% | +185 | DAL 23, PHI 24 | Game file → |
| 14 |  San Francisco 49ers | vs. Falcons | 53% | -175 | SF 24, ATL 23 | Game file → |
How to use it
Rank the slate by win probability.
The table orders every pick by the model's estimated chance to win, independent of the point spread. Moneylines are displayed as market context.
Use the probability gap to separate clear favorites from toss-ups. A 52% pick and a 51% pick should not be treated as meaningfully different.
The model uses only information available before the target week: opponent-adjusted team strength, scoring form, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market odds are shown for context and do not create the team rating.
Read the methodology →When do these NFL picks update?
The board refreshes with the scheduled data release before kickoff. Each game prediction freezes when that game starts.
Does the model use the betting line to make its pick?
No. Team strength, scoring, site and rest create the prediction. The timestamped market line is shown separately for comparison.
Are these guaranteed picks?
No. Probabilities and score projections describe uncertainty; they do not guarantee an outcome or profit.