What are the NFL Week 8 straight-up picks?
FTT ranks the complete weekly slate from a pregame team-strength model and links every answer to its matchup evidence.
2026 NFL · Week 8 · Win probabilities
NFL Week 8 Straight-Up Picks.
New England Patriots is the strongest straight-up pick at 83%, followed by the rest of the slate in probability order.
Updated Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Projections refresh before kickoff, then the archived call stays fixed.
| Rank | Pick | Opponent | FTT win chance | Market | Projected score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New England Patriots | vs. Dolphins | 83% | -425 | NE 28, MIA 15 | Game file → |
| 2 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs. Colts | 82% | -375 | IND 18, JAX 30 | Game file → |
| 3 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs. Titans | 81% | -575 | TEN 16, CIN 28 | Game file → |
| 4 |  Dallas Cowboys | vs. Cardinals | 75% | -305 | ARI 21, DAL 30 | Game file → |
| 5 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs. Chargers | 71% | -355 | LAC 18, LAR 26 | Game file → |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs. Browns | 65% | -205 | CLE 18, PIT 23 | Game file → |
| 7 |  Buffalo Bills | vs. Ravens | 63% | -155 | BAL 24, BUF 29 | Game file → |
| 8 |  New York Jets | vs. Raiders | 62% | -112 | LV 21, NYJ 25 | Game file → |
| 9 |  Green Bay Packers | vs. Panthers | 61% | -155 | CAR 21, GB 25 | Game file → |
| 10 |  Philadelphia Eagles | vs. Commanders | 60% | +154 | PHI 24, WAS 21 | Game file → |
| 11 |  Kansas City Chiefs | vs. Broncos | 54% | -122 | KC 22, DEN 20 | Game file → |
| 12 |  Detroit Lions | vs. Vikings | 54% | -155 | MIN 23, DET 24 | Game file → |
| 13 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | vs. Falcons | 51% | -118 | ATL 23, TB 24 | Game file → |
| 14 |  Chicago Bears | vs. Seahawks | 51% | +140 | CHI 24, SEA 23 | Game file → |
How to use it
Rank the slate by win probability.
The table orders every pick by the model's estimated chance to win, independent of the point spread. Moneylines are displayed as market context.
Use the probability gap to separate clear favorites from toss-ups. A 52% pick and a 51% pick should not be treated as meaningfully different.
The model uses only information available before the target week: opponent-adjusted team strength, scoring form, prior-season strength, home field and rest. Market odds are shown for context and do not create the team rating.
Read the methodology →When do these NFL picks update?
The board refreshes with the scheduled data release before kickoff. Each game prediction freezes when that game starts.
Does the model use the betting line to make its pick?
No. Team strength, scoring, site and rest create the prediction. The timestamped market line is shown separately for comparison.
Are these guaranteed picks?
No. Probabilities and score projections describe uncertainty; they do not guarantee an outcome or profit.