Away
23Atlanta Falcons
- Record
- 2-4
- FTT rating
- +0.7
- Listed QB
- TBD
NFL Week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the FTT straight-up pick at 51% model probability. The projected score is ATL 23, TB 24.
Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
24Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record
- 1-5
- FTT rating
- -0.5
- Listed QB
- TBD
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | TB 52% market | TB 51% model | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -118 | 0.6 points |
| Spread | TB -1.5 | TB -0.4 | Atlanta Falcons +1.5 | 1.1 points |
| Total | O/U 44.5 | 45.9 | Over 44.5 | 1.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Atlanta Falcons entered Week 8 at 2-4 with a -1.8 point differential per game. Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered at 1-5 and -3.2 per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Falcons vs. Buccaneers?
The FTT model picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Its projected score is ATL 23, TB 24.
What is the Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread pick?
The model leans Atlanta Falcons +1.5, with a 1.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Falcons vs. Buccaneers over/under pick?
The model leans over 44.5, with a 1.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.