Away
22Kansas City Chiefs
- Record
- 5-0
- FTT rating
- +3.8
- Listed QB
- TBD
NFL Week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET
Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs is the FTT straight-up pick at 54% model probability. The projected score is KC 22, DEN 20.
Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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20Denver Broncos
- Record
- 4-2
- FTT rating
- +0.9
- Listed QB
- TBD
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | DEN 47% market | DEN 46% model | Kansas City Chiefs -122 | 1.4 points |
| Spread | DEN +1.5 | DEN +1.3 | Pass | 0.2 points |
| Total | O/U 42.5 | 41.7 | Pass | 0.8 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Kansas City Chiefs entered Week 8 at 5-0 with a +11.4 point differential per game. Denver Broncos entered at 4-2 and -1.8 per game.
Denver Broncos receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Chiefs vs. Broncos?
The FTT model picks Kansas City Chiefs. Its projected score is KC 22, DEN 20.
What is the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +1.5.
What is the Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 42.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.