Away
18Indianapolis Colts
- Record
- 2-4
- FTT rating
- -2.1
- Listed QB
- TBD
NFL Week 8 · Sunday, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Colts vs. Jaguars prediction.
Jacksonville Jaguars is the FTT straight-up pick at 82% model probability. The projected score is IND 18, JAX 30.
Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
30Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record
- 4-2
- FTT rating
- +7.9
- Listed QB
- TBD
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | JAX 76% market | JAX 82% model | Jacksonville Jaguars -375 | 5.9 points |
| Spread | JAX -7.5 | JAX -12.1 | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 | 4.6 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 47.9 | Pass | 0.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Indianapolis Colts entered Week 8 at 2-4 with a -3.3 point differential per game. Jacksonville Jaguars entered at 4-2 and +8.3 per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is home by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Colts vs. Jaguars?
The FTT model picks Jacksonville Jaguars. Its projected score is IND 18, JAX 30.
What is the Colts vs. Jaguars spread pick?
The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5, with a 4.6-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Colts vs. Jaguars over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 47.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.