Derrick Henry
BAL vs. BUFFloor10.4
Median13.8
Ceiling21.3
Recent PPG: 11.3
Recent volume: 18.5
Snap share: 55%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 8 lineup decision · updated Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST
Derrick Henry or Zay Flowers: who should I start?
Zay Flowers has the narrow Week 8 lean over Derrick Henry. The Half PPR projection is 14.7 to 13.8.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
BAL vs. BUFOpen player file →
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. BUFFloor9.9
Median14.7
Ceiling19.0
Recent PPG: 16.5
Recent volume: 11.0
Snap share: 87%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 8 projection by format.
Standard
Start Derrick Henry
1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 10.1
- Projection
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 20.7
Other option
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 6.9
- Projection
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 15.3
Half PPR
Start Zay Flowers — close call
0.9-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 10.4
- Projection
- 13.8
- Ceiling
- 21.3
Recommended start
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 9.9
- Projection
- 14.7
- Ceiling
- 19.0
PPR
Start Zay Flowers
3.7-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 11.2
- Projection
- 14.3
- Ceiling
- 21.8
Recommended start
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. BUF- Floor
- 12.2
- Projection
- 18.0
- Ceiling
- 22.7
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.
Derrick Henry: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps. Zay Flowers: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is tougher.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 8 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 8 final result
Derrick Henry scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Derrick Henry: 13.0 Half PPR · Zay Flowers: 0.0 Half PPR.
More Week 8 decisions
Keep working through the close calls.
FLEX · 1.3-point leanDerrick Henry over Amon-Ra St. Brown13.8–12.5 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.1-point leanZay Flowers over Ashton Jeanty14.7–13.6 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.7-point leanBijan Robinson over Zay Flowers16.4–14.7 Half PPR →FLEX · Close callDerrick Henry over Brock Bowers13.8–13.6 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.1-point leanZay Flowers over Brock Bowers14.7–13.6 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.9-point leanCeeDee Lamb over Derrick Henry15.7–13.8 Half PPR →