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Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 7, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT

Amon-Ra St. Brown or Derrick Henry: who should I start?

Start Derrick Henry over Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 19.8 to 17.2.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Photograph of Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs. ARI
Floor9.4
Median17.2
Ceiling19.7

Recent PPG: 19.0

Recent volume: 9.5

Snap share: 85%

Availability: No current-week designation

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Start lean
Photograph of Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor13.0
Median19.8
Ceiling22.2

Recent PPG: 21.8

Recent volume: 26.0

Snap share: 65%

Availability: No current-week designation

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Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Derrick Henry

5.5-point gapHigh confidence
Other option

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs. ARI
Floor
6.2
Projection
13.6
Ceiling
15.0
Recommended start

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
12.9
Projection
19.1
Ceiling
21.6
Half PPR

Start Derrick Henry

2.6-point gapHigh confidence
Other option

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs. ARI
Floor
9.4
Projection
17.2
Ceiling
19.7
Recommended start

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
13.0
Projection
19.8
Ceiling
22.2
PPR

Start Amon-Ra St. Brown — close call

0.2-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Amon-Ra St. Brown

DET vs. ARI
Floor
12.8
Projection
20.8
Ceiling
24.9
Other option

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
13.4
Projection
20.6
Ceiling
22.9

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup is neutral. Derrick Henry: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Derrick Henry scored more. The pregame lean was right.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: 11.5 Half PPR · Derrick Henry: 14.9 Half PPR.

Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →